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Outliers is a book about success. It starts with a very simple question: what is the difference between those who do something special with their lives and everyone else? In Outliers we are going to visit a genius who lives on a horse farm in Northern Missouri. We’re going to examine the bizarre histories of professional hockey players and look into the peculiar childhood of Bill Gates and spend time in a Chinese rice paddy. We will investigate the world’s greatest law firm and wonder about what distinguishes pilots who crash planes from those who don’t. And in examining the lives of the remarkable among us the brilliant, the exceptional and the unusual we will learn that the way we think about success is all wrong.
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each year Microsoft Research hosts
00:03
hundreds of influential speakers from
00:04
around the world including leading
00:06
scientists renowned experts in
00:08
technology book authors and leading
00:10
academics and makes videos of these
00:12
lectures freely available
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okay so mr. Gladwell is here today to
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discuss his new book outliers outliers
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is a book about success it starts with a
00:30
very simple question what is the
00:32
difference between those who do
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something special with their lives and
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everyone else the book explores this
00:39
question by examining the lives of the
00:41
remarkable among us the brilliant the
00:43
exceptional and the unusual through his
00:46
book we learned that the way we think
00:47
about success is all wrong
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Malcolm Gladwell is a staff writer for
00:52
The New Yorker and the author of two
00:53
best-selling books the tipping point and
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blink please join me in welcoming
00:57
Malcolm Gladwell to Microsoft
01:07
so no pleasure to be here you know I
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don’t work in a office I work at home
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and I
01:13
I forget what offices are like and I was
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around the corner and I I saw this big
01:20
open refrigerator with all kinds of
01:23
subjects I was like how cool is that
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I am I so I’m done with my new book
01:31
which you know there are many things in
01:33
it and I can say all kinds of things
01:35
about it but I I thought I would talk
01:37
about an idea that is actually not in
01:39
the book but that I’ve been thinking
01:41
about a lot since writing it and which
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Encapsulates a lot of what the book is
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about and it’s um it’s this idea that’s
01:50
called a capitalization and it is a
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concept that a very brilliant
01:56
psychologist named James Flynn has
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written a lot about those of you who
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know something about IQ research will
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have heard of the Flynn effect that’s
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James Flynn’s idea and he’s written a
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lot about this content of
capitalization
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which is what is the rate at which a
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society capitalizes on its potential and
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it was what percentage of people who are
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capable of doing something actually end
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up doing that thing right how
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efficiently do we make use of the
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talents within a given group of people
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so let me give an example um you know
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how many of you read Michael Lewis’s
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book The Blind Side which is this
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extraordinary book about a young man in
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East Memphis a teenager who’s six foot
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six and 350 pounds and he’s discovered
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by and adopted by a wealthy white family
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and they realized that he’s an
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extraordinary athlete and they they work
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with him until he becomes one of the
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finest offensive lineman in the country
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and in fact he’s about to be drafted
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into the NFL’s as many years later and
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make a kajillion dollars and they it’s
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this extraordinary story but the part of
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it that always stayed with me when I
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read it was it right at the very end the
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kid whose name is Michael Oh her says
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he’s from the slums of Memphis he’s
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Memphis and he says if everyone
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who I grew up with who was who was into
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football who had real ability in
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football actually ended up playing
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football they’d need to have two
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National Football League’s and what he
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was saying was that that East Memphis
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did not do a very good job of
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capitalizing on its athletic ability
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right and so Lewis actually follows up
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on this and he he does this he talked to
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some people in the he spent the school
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system and he asked them what percentage
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of kids in East Memphis who get a
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college athletic scholarship actually
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end up going to college and the answer
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was one in six which absolutely floored
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me because I would have thought that
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when it comes if there was one thing in
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America that we were really good at
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doing it would be exploiting the
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athletic ability of our youth in
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particular of our of our
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african-american youth I would have
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thought that in an inner-city area the
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capitalization rate for sports would
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have been 90% but in fact what we learn
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in East Memphis is that the
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capitalization rate is one in six it’s
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16 percent right so now think about it
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if in something that we care about as
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much as sports right something we
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there’s possibly nothing in American
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society that we devote more time and
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attention intellectual resources to then
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the maximization of the professional
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sporting experience in something that we
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cared that much about our cap rate is 16
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percent so how high must it be in things
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that we don’t care that much about right
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that’s a very sobering notion and it
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says that as a society we have an awful
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lot long way to go towards properly
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maximizing the human potential of our
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members and so I realized when I thought
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about that book that outliers is really
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about that question it’s about
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identifying sources of constraints on
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capitalization rates and figuring out
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how how to remove them so what I thought
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I do is just to talk about a variety of
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these constraints what are the kinds of
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things that lower cap rates in any
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number of different areas of human
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endeavor so one obvious one is poverty
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when that kid Michael
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her who grows up in East Memphis talks
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about what a tiny fraction of the kids
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he grew up with who had athletic ability
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actually end up going to college what
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he’s talking about his poverty East
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Memphis is one of the poorest
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neighborhoods in the United States and
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we know that that that kind of poverty
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makes it very very difficult for those
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who have an ability to do something to
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actually end up doing that very thing
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and that’s of an obvious constraint on
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capitalization but one of the things I
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think is is true of poverty is that we
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tend even as we acknowledge its
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importance in constraining
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capitalization we underestimate just
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what a powerful constraint it is and let
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me give an example in the book I talk
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about the famous German study that was
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done in California and this is a study
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done in the 20s began in the 20s in
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California and Turman who is a
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psychologist at Stanford in fact
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determine who was the first Dean of
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engineering at Stanford in fact isn’t
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there a hall called terman hall at
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Stanford how many would Stanford that’s
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this guy’s son anyway the side fact for
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those of you into Stanford he does this
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thing where he he gives an IQ test to
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250,000 California schoolchildren and he
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basically identifies the top 120 points
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Oh kids with IQs of 140 plus genius
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level essentially and he tracks those
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kids for the rest of their lives for 50
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years and he’s trying to figure out what
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happens to them and it’s his notion
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starting out that he said yet he thinks
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because he’s so invested in the notion
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that IQ is the single most determinant
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of life success he thinks what he’s done
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is identified the cohort who will turn
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out to be the leaders in academia in
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academia in industry in the people who
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will end up you know running all the
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organizations and being the top
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politicians and the top intellectuals
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right so he follows them and follows
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them for over the course of 20 and 30
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years and 20 and 30 years in he realizes
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actually it’s not true at all and that
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these kids turn out as when they turn
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out to be adults they have a variety of
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strikingly different fates there
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a small group that does very well the
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top 15% do actually occupy positions of
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real prominence in society then there’s
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a big group in the middle who have
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pretty average lives and remember these
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are kids with adults with genius-level
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IQ and the majority of them do they’re
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kind of like have moderately successful
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professional lives and then there is a
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chunk at the bottom who have who are by
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any measure failures who have whose
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lives turn out by by any kind of
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occupational yardstick to be massively
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disappointing who make dude who dot do
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not seem to make use of their
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extraordinary human potential at all and
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the question that Turman has to wrestle
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with is why did that group fail what’s
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the difference between this group who
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did beautifully well on this group who
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did so poorly at the bottom and he runs
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through I mean this question obviously
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obsesses him and he runs through every
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conceivable explanation for that
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difference and he says that their
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personalities it’s not he says is it
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there is it there their habits is it
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there and it goes on and on down the
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list and he realizes in the end that the
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answer is really really simple and that
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is that the kids who did best these
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genius kids who ended up succeeding in
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the world were the ones who came from
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wealthy households and that the
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genius-level kids who ended up utter
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failures in life were the ones who were
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born into poor families right born into
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families where parents hadn’t gone to
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college where they weren’t books in the
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home where there wasn’t the kind of
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cultural and institutional support for a
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habit of learning and a habit of
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intellectual activity what he was saying
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in other words that even if you endow a
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child with a brain that is a
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one-in-a-billion brain that is not
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sufficient to ensure the success of that
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child that poverty is such a powerful
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constraint on capitalisation that it can
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reduce that genius child to a lifetime
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of worse than mediocrity a lifetime of
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really profound on disappointment so
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that’s the that’s the first constraint
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like I say it’s the obvious constraint
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but I think it’s important to impress on
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on for all of us to understand
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that poverty is probably a bigger
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constraint than we think particularly
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those of us who are not intimately
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connected with it we may tend to
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underestimate what an extraordinary
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impact that has on on limiting people’s
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ability to do well
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so let’s look with some other
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constraints that are maybe less obvious
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I got really interested in this book in
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looking at the composition of elite
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sports teams and and if you do that you
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find all cut find out all kinds of
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strange things so at one point I looked
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at the roster of the 2007 junior Czech
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hockey team now I did not pick that team
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for any I picked that team at random I
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just was interested in the that’s an
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elite team it was the second or third
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best junior hockey team in the world
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after of course the Canadiens I’m
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Canadian and so it’s a it’s a really
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elite team these are the kind of kids
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who go on to play in the NHL or in the
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illegal adult leagues in in in Europe so
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I’m going to read to you the birth dates
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of the members of that national Czech
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team 2007 January 3rd January 3rd
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January 12th February 8th February 10th
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February 17th February 20th February
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24th March 5th March 10th March 26th
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April 22nd May 5th June 6th July 2nd
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July 19th July 20th August 15th August
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25th August 31st November 29th and
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December 31st now what’s strange about
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that list
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did you notice 11 of the 20 names are
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born in January February and March it is
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a massively skewed distribution of birth
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dates towards the first three months of
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the year now that is not something
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idiosyncratic to the 19 to 2007 Chuck
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junior hockey team in fact if you look
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at any elite hockey team anywhere in the
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world and for that matter any elite
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soccer team anywhere in the world you
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will see the same skewed distribution
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you will see that an overwhelming number
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of the members of those teams are born
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in January February and March now why is
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that
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the answer is that the eligibility
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cut-offs for age class hockey and soccer
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throughout the world is January 1st and
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in both those sports we very very
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aggressively recruit the best and the
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brightest kids at a very early age so we
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go and we look at a had a a group of 10
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year olds we watch them play hockey or
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soccer and we picked the best right and
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we select them out we put them in
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all-star teams and we give them a
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special coaching and extra practice time
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and more games and encourage them and
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encourage them right thinking that is
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the best way to capitalize on the talent
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pool in that particular sport but think
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about it when you’re 10 years old
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who’s going to be the best at a
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particular activity physical activity
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the oldest kids right the kid who is
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born in January has ten months of
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maturity on the kid born in October and
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when you’re ten years old ten months is
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an extraordinary long period of time it
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can be that it can be three or four
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inches in height it can be a difference
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between between being clumsy and being
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massively coordinated so we think we are
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picking the best and we’re not we’re
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picking the oldest right and then we
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take the oldest and we give them special
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coaching and all kinds of extra
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opportunities and all kinds of extra
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games and lo and behold ten years later
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they really are the best right but it’s
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a self-fulfilling prophecy
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we created the conditions that made them
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the best and foolishly thought we were
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actually identifying real talent now you
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only have to look at that and realize
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what an extraordinary constraint on
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capitalisation that is right logic would
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tell us that the distribution of hockey
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ability or soccer ability should be even
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throughout the year there by rights
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should be as many great soccer players
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or hockey fairies born in December as
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January but when we look at these teams
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that we see they’re overwhelmingly
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weighted for the first three months of
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the year that suggests that we are that
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the capitalization rate for hockey it’s
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must be less than 50% right we are
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leaving
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all the talent born in the second half
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of the year on the table now there’s
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clearly a very easy solution to that
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problem and that is that when we put
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together leagues of four soccer soccer
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and hockey and
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at her support in the h-class arena we
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should have different streams for kids
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born in different months we should have
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three parallel leagues one for kids born
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in the first four months of the year one
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for kids born in the middle for months
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and one for kids born in the last four
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months right and have them develop
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independently until they’re in their
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mid-teens and then select it’s a really
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simple way and if we did that we would
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double or triple our capitalization of
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talent in that particular realm now why
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don’t we do that right because we refuse
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to admit that our own rules arbitrary
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rules constrain capitalization and we
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cling to a naive belief that these
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meritocracies that we have constructed
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in this particular realm are entirely
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rational and efficient and fair so this
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is a second constraint on capitalization
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it’s the stupidity constraint right
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there’s our inability to understand that
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there is something deeply arbitrary and
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unfair in the way we have written the
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rules on which a meritocracy exists now
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for those of you who think that that is
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a minor issue and that so what if those
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kids can’t play hockey you know why
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can’t they just play another sport let
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me remind you that this is true of many
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sports I’m gonna I’m gonna give you the
15:36
the birth dates of the 2007 check junior
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soccer team ready January 1st January
15:42
3rd January 5th January 12th January
15:44
26th January 27th February 1st February
15:47
14th February 20th February 1st February
15:52
9th April 16th May 20th May 26th June
15:56
22nd June 24th August 18th and September
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26th but if that’s not a contest ability
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constraint on capitalization on football
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ability on soccer ability in a country
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by the way that cares more about
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football than you know perhaps anything
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I don’t know what is that’s a and I you
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know we need to take in other words very
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seriously the question of how we choose
16:21
to structure systems of America
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meritocratic systems and this also you
16:28
can apply this exact same logic to
16:31
educational opportunities
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if you look at how well kids do in
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school based purely on their birth dates
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on whether they fall into the youngest
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oldest or middle age cohort in their
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class you see exactly the same patterns
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in fact there’s a beautiful study done
16:51
recently that tracked thousands and
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thousands of kids across the West and
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tracked them all the way through to
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their university level and found that
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kids born in the relatively youngest
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cohort of their age class were 11
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percent less likely to go to college
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than kids born in the relatively oldest
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cohort of their of their age class 11
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percent is a huge difference and it says
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that we are that is 11 percent of kids
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whose opportunity is being whose whose
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whose human potential is being
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squandered right completely foreclosed
17:29
why because we are so stupid as to
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organize our elementary school education
17:34
without reference to the obvious fact of
17:38
biological maturity right it is another
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it is a glaring example of how stupidity
17:45
constraints dramatically limit the
17:49
capitalization of human potential
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so third constraint and I can go on
17:56
about constraints but I’ll stop with the
17:57
third one this is in many ways the most
18:00
fun one and the most controversial one
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but but I think it’s it’s worth digging
18:05
into and it’s it’s what I what I would
18:08
say as an attitudinal constraint on
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capitalization so one of the I have a
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whole chapter in my book which is about
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this question of why it is that Asian
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kids do so much better at math than
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their Western counterparts now the
18:21
numbers here are irrefutable and they’re
18:24
extraordinary the differences in
18:26
mathematics performance between kids in
18:30
Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Japan
18:32
and kids in America Germany England or
18:37
what have you
18:38
though fact we just got of results from
18:42
these international math test
18:43
comparisons I think a couple weeks ago
18:45
and
18:45
we’re talking about the difference is
18:46
not this the difference is is that and
18:51
if you look closely at trying to figure
18:54
out why it seems to be the case that the
18:56
difference the reason for that
18:57
difference has to do with attitudes it
19:01
has to do with what is the attitude with
19:03
which the child in those two sets of
19:06
cultures approaches a math problem and
19:10
it seems to be the case that when Asian
19:12
kids sit down and face a high school
19:14
math problem they have a different
19:16
expectation of what solving that problem
19:18
entails they have an expectation that if
19:21
they apply effort to the problem the
19:22
problem is solvable whereas when we look
19:25
very closely at the attitudes of Western
19:27
children they seem to have the attitude
19:29
that their ability to solve that math
19:31
problem is a function of their ability
19:34
of their innate ability something they
19:36
either have or they don’t and that
19:38
attitudinal difference seems to make a
19:41
profit have a profound effect on the
19:45
ability of kids to do well at math
19:47
because as it turns out the Asian
19:49
approach to mathematics is the correct
19:51
one when I say correct let me give an
19:53
example so these international math
19:55
tests that we give to kids around the
19:58
world they’re called Tim’s we give the
20:00
Tim’s every four years it’s the same
20:01
test two kids all over the world and and
20:04
that’s how we come up with these
20:05
rankings of how countries do well when
20:07
we give the Tim’s to kids at the same
20:10
time as we get them to math test we give
20:12
them a questionnaire and the
20:13
questionnaire is really long it’s 120
20:16
questions long and it asked them all
20:18
kinds of questions about that it will be
20:19
useful to researchers so how many hours
20:22
do you study
20:22
do your parents encourage you do you
20:25
like man you know all those kinds of
20:26
things but it’s really really long and
20:27
it’s so long in fact that most kids
20:29
don’t finish the questionnaire it’s just
20:31
too too long right so a couple years ago
20:34
this really brilliant guy called rolling
20:36
ball at Penn I decided he would rank the
20:40
countries of the world by what
20:42
percentage of questions on the
20:44
questionnaire their kids finished right
20:47
now you know what he found when he did
20:49
that ranking and compared it to the
20:51
ranking of countries on the world by
20:53
what percentage of questions on the math
20:55
test their kids got right the two
20:57
rankings were exactly the same
20:59
and when I say exactly the same I mean
21:01
there was a correlation of point nine
21:02
point nine in the history of social
21:05
science there has never been a
21:06
correlation of point nine between two
21:09
it’s the same thing when we if you want
21:11
to know how good a country doesn’t
21:13
mathematics in other words you don’t
21:15
have to ask that those countries kids
21:17
any math questions you just have to make
21:21
them do a task that requires them to sit
21:24
down at a seat for an extended period of
21:26
time and focus on a task wait and if
21:29
they can do it they’re good at math
21:32
really really fascinating in other words
21:34
what we’re saying is when we look at
21:38
Asian cultures what we are seeing is
21:41
this this difference in mathematical
21:43
ability what we’re seeing is not some
21:45
underlying difference in talent or
21:47
aptitude for mathematics but a
21:49
difference in capitalization that Asian
21:52
the Asian cultural attitude about work
21:54
has the result of being a far more
21:56
efficient way of capitalizing on math
21:59
ability than Western attitudes towards
22:02
work and that tells us where the deficit
22:06
in our mathematical education in the
22:10
Western world lies it’s not in our
22:12
curriculum it’s not in the quality of
22:14
our teachers it’s not in the size of our
22:16
classrooms it’s not in the amount of
22:18
money we spend on schools it is the
22:20
attitude in the head of the child as he
22:23
or she sits down in 11th grade and does
22:26
algebra or calculus right and by the way
22:30
nor is it a problem in our genes as some
22:32
people would like to say of there’s a
22:34
whole bizarre argument that Westerners
22:37
have I’m an inferior set of genes when
22:39
it comes to mathematics then Easterners
22:42
you know a totally ludicrous and
22:45
unnecessary step in this argument
22:47
no it’s about culture it’s about a
22:49
difference in attitude and about their
22:51
ability to far more efficiently
22:53
capitalize on the abilities of their
22:56
kids now why now why does this the case
23:01
I mean this is a I’ll just address for a
23:03
moment a really really interesting
23:05
question is okay if Asian cultures have
23:08
profoundly different attitudes towards
23:10
effort when it comes to mathematics why
23:13
right why does that come from and nobody
23:15
knows but in my book I venture what I
23:17
think is a plausible explanation and
23:20
that is that I think it has to do with
23:23
patterns of effort laid down in in
23:27
historical agricultural practices that
23:31
when you look what what is the thing
23:33
that Hong Kong South China South Korea
23:36
and Japan all have in common and that is
23:39
they are historically rice-growing
23:40
cultures right and what is distinctive
23:43
about rice growing it is the most
23:45
labor-intensive and cognitively complex
23:48
form of Agriculture known to men we know
23:51
so my my my father’s European ancestors
23:55
in the Middle Ages in northern England
23:58
probably worked a thousand hours a year
24:01
as peasant farmers so that meant was
24:04
they worked from from dawn to noon five
24:08
days a week on the weekends they drank
24:11
themselves silly and during the winter
24:14
they slept basically and they got lots
24:17
of I don’t feel this but a peasant in
24:18
medieval England got lots and lots and
24:20
lots of holidays that peasants
24:23
counterpart in South China or Japan in
24:27
the same period would not have worked
24:28
1,000 hours a year they would have
24:30
worked 3,000 hours a year for the simple
24:33
reason that rice farming is just a whole
24:35
it is not not a difference not a that’s
24:38
not just a difference in degree from
24:40
wheat farming is a difference in kind
24:42
it’s a whole different way of working it
24:44
demands that you wake up at dawn and
24:47
work all the way until dusk and demands
24:49
that you work on the weekend in fact
24:51
there’s a wonderful Chinese proverb that
24:56
I quote in the book which is a man who
25:01
works dawn to dusk 360 days a year will
25:05
not go hungry right which is encapsulate
25:08
the difference between eastern and
25:10
western agricultural practices no my
25:14
peasant ancestors in northern England it
25:16
would be inconceivable they could call
25:18
that a proverb they would have said the
25:20
man who works a hundred and seventy five
25:24
days a year
25:26
dawn to Allah
25:27
and may or may not be hungry well my
25:32
argument is if your culture does that if
25:34
that’s what you guys what you do for a
25:36
thousand years that attitude is a deeply
25:39
rooted part of your makeup and win your
25:43
kids even if they didn’t themselves work
25:45
in a rice paddy when they sit down and
25:47
face a calculus or an algebra problem
25:50
that legacy that attitude towards effort
25:54
and persistence translates beautifully
25:56
to that most modern of tasks and that
26:00
and means that your culture will do a
26:02
far better job of of capitalizing on on
26:06
on its innate ability now is that the
26:09
whole story I don’t know probably not
26:10
they’re probably all kinds of other
26:11
explanations as well and I get into some
26:13
of them but I think it is important that
26:16
when we look at things from this
26:17
perspective to try and add to try and
26:20
answer questions using history and
26:23
culture as our guide when you think
26:26
about problems in other words from the
26:28
perspective of capitalization I think
26:30
you look for answers in different places
26:32
then when you have a far more simple or
26:35
more reductive approach to these kinds
26:38
of things now why is this capitalization
26:40
discussion of capitalization so
26:41
important because I think when we look
26:45
at why certain people or groups succeed
26:49
in the world
26:51
our default explanation is always of
26:53
those differences in success reflect
26:56
underlying differences in ability and we
27:00
forget about how much poverty stupidity
27:04
and attitudes are far more important
27:06
constraints on on capitalization you
27:09
know remember I’m a I’m up happy I’m a
27:11
runner and I observed like most runners
27:15
have over the last 25 or 30 years how
27:18
utterly dominant the Kenyans and the
27:20
Ethiopians have been in long-distance
27:22
running and this has prompted all kinds
27:26
of people to say that this must
27:27
represent some fundamental difference in
27:30
underlying levels of ability that there
27:32
must be something peculiar about the
27:34
genetic makeup of East Africans that
27:36
makes them better runners than the rest
27:39
of us that’s
27:40
and explanation right but a far more
27:42
elegant and persuasive and simpler
27:44
explanation for them is that they have a
27:47
higher level of capitalization than we
27:49
do Alberto Salazar who’s the great
27:51
American marathoner he recently pointed
27:55
out that in Kenya there are probably a
27:58
million schoolboys between the age of 10
28:00
and 17 years of age who run but over ten
28:04
around 10 to 12 miles a day right a
28:07
million boys running 10 to 12 miles a
28:10
day between the age of 12 and 17 the
28:12
same number in the United States is
28:15
probably 5,000 if that right so our
28:19
capitalization rate when it comes to
28:21
distance running what is it is it it’s
28:23
surely less than 1% right it’s probably
28:26
point 0.5 percent how many kids who are
28:29
capable of being great long-distance
28:32
runners in the United States ever
28:33
discover whether they have that that
28:36
that ability they never do because I
28:38
never actually do the work necessary to
28:40
find it but in Kenya how many great
28:42
distance runners do they miss if they
28:44
have a million school boys running ten
28:46
miles a day almost none their
28:48
capitalization rate is probably 95%
28:50
that’s the difference right the
28:53
difference has to do with what does the
28:55
culture value and where does it spend
28:57
its time and attention and how good is
28:59
it at finding and make and exploiting
29:01
that kind of human potential they’re
29:03
really good at that when it comes to
29:04
distance running and we’re not and I
29:07
think when you think about things that
29:09
weigh it powerfully clarifies how you go
29:12
about improving our use of human
29:15
potential it means that you don’t give
29:17
up means that you don’t say look at a
29:19
group that’s not succeeding and say they
29:22
are incapable of success and say that
29:24
the problems that they face are too
29:26
powerful to an eight to ingrain for us
29:28
to do anything about the capitalization
29:30
argument I think enables us it empowers
29:34
us it tells us that we can actually make
29:36
a profound difference in how well people
29:39
turn out if we choose to pay attention
29:41
to the constraints imposed by poverty by
29:45
stupidity and by attitude so that’s a
29:49
little glimmer of the kinds of things
29:52
that I’m resting
29:53
in his book there’s many more but I
29:55
would be happy to answer any questions
29:57
then how many of you have I don’t know
30:13
if you mentioned people more over 40 or
30:15
50 can’t spin spin thousand I was doing
30:17
something will you suggest to us oh this
30:21
is that the question is in reference to
30:23
I talked about in the book at one point
30:26
about um how long does it take to be
30:28
good at something and the this
30:31
observation by many psychologists that
30:33
that to master a cognitively complex
30:36
task whether it’s playing chess at an
30:39
elite level or being a brain surgeon or
30:41
a Cosco music composer or a good
30:42
computer programmer requires seemingly
30:47
without exception 10,000 hours of
30:49
deliberate practice so 10,000 hours is
30:52
roughly four hours a day for ten years
30:55
so you need to put in that kind of time
30:57
before even the most talented of people
31:00
innately talented people can ever
31:01
achieve an elite status but I would
31:05
actually the and what I don’t think this
31:09
argument that observation suggests that
31:12
people who are older in life
31:14
this is closing doors to people who are
31:16
older life on the country I says it I
31:17
think it suggests the opposite that it
31:20
says that at any point in our lives if
31:22
we are in a position to apply ourselves
31:24
in a formal and rigorous and intensive
31:26
way to a problem we should be able to
31:29
see fruits of that it says in other
31:32
words that what is special about people
31:35
who do highly extraordinary or creative
31:37
acts is not that they are there’s
31:40
something special of something inherent
31:42
in their mind some particular genius or
31:45
that there is some magical property
31:47
associated with youth right on the
31:49
country it says that know what sets them
31:51
apart is that simply that what we are
31:52
seeing is the the the necessary and
31:56
predictable outcome of applying oneself
31:59
rigorously to a task something that can
32:02
that is available to anyone at any point
32:04
in their life if they choose to
32:06
apply themselves in that way so if I
32:08
think it’s a my liberating observation
32:28
so the question was about Little League
32:30
baseball literally baseball has a cutoff
32:32
in mid summer or early summer and in
32:34
fact if you look at the distribution of
32:36
birth dates of baseball players
32:39
professional baseball players in in
32:41
America you will see that they are
32:42
highly clustered in the late summer
32:44
months most baseball players are June
32:46
July August or July August September I
32:49
forgotten exactly where the so we see
32:51
the same effect very clearly with
32:53
baseball what does the kid who is born
32:55
on an April 27th do well in a certain
33:00
way nothing there’s nothing you can do
33:03
this is I mean this is some one of the
33:06
things that I would that I were in
33:07
writing this book was objecting to was
33:09
this strain and American thinking that
33:11
says that all obstacles are ultimately
33:15
overcome a ball by individuals if that
33:19
individuals simply chooses to be
33:22
determined enough I think that’s very
33:23
true and I’ll persistence determination
33:25
are incredibly important components of
33:28
success but we also have to understand
33:31
that when it comes to stupidity
33:34
constraints there is very little that
33:36
individuals can do that’s the reason
33:38
that’s why we call them stupidity
33:39
constraints because they have been
33:41
stupidly appo imposed on a collective
33:43
level and are powerful enough to
33:46
overcome even really really determined
33:49
individuals there are certain things
33:51
that can only be done at the society
33:53
level right and you know it is only our
33:57
naive like I said I only our naive faith
33:59
in the efficiency and fairness of
34:01
Metacritic systems that prevents us from
34:03
seeing this the only thing you can do
34:06
for the kid born April 27th who wants to
34:08
be a baseball player is do what I talked
34:09
about is create parallel leagues based
34:12
on on physical maturity that’s the way
34:14
you do it and it is that if you look
34:17
when I read that roster list for those
34:19
Czech teams
34:20
you know there are lots and lots and
34:22
lots of kids in check in in the Czech
34:25
Republic who want to be successful
34:28
soccer or hockey players but who
34:32
happened to be born at the end of the
34:34
year and you can see there’s the
34:35
evidence they’re not getting it they’re
34:36
not making it right it’s not enough to
34:39
ask the individual to I’m to try harder
34:42
sure so I was kind of wondering as I
34:47
read through the book if you know given
34:49
it it’s kind of about constraints placed
34:51
are someone arbitrarily and if you came
34:54
across any examples in your research of
34:56
sort of outliers of those theories in
34:58
other words people that managed to
35:00
succeed in certain things despite those
35:02
constraints yeah so yeah this is a very
35:05
interesting question so there’s
35:06
something I’ve thought about a lot
35:07
subsequent to this so the book
35:11
identifies I’m really interested in this
35:13
book in advantages that are advantages
35:17
meaning the kinds of opportunities and
35:20
advantages that end up putting you
35:22
further ahead than you would have been
35:23
otherwise right but that’s clearly only
35:26
one of four conditions there are also
35:28
advantages that are disadvantages so if
35:33
your father is worth a billion dollars
35:36
do you think that you would be as a kid
35:41
better off or worse off today right then
35:44
you then you would be if your father
35:46
made $100,000 I would rather have a dad
35:49
who made a hundred thousand than have
35:50
done a billion I think they’re having a
35:52
father with a billion dollars would
35:53
actually be quite crippling to your
35:55
motivation and so that’s an advantage
35:57
that’s actually a disadvantage right so
36:00
then there’s also disadvantages that are
36:03
disadvantages so that would be that’s
36:07
condition three and that would be to
36:09
grow up the child of a single mother
36:12
who’s addicted to drugs in you know in
36:17
East Memphis is a disadvantage that’s a
36:19
disadvantage you really you know almost
36:21
no one overcomes that right but what
36:24
you’re asking about is the fourth
36:26
condition which is are there
36:28
disadvantages that are advantages now
36:30
that is the most fascinating one of all
36:32
so
36:34
for example one of the most fascinating
36:39
observations that’s been made in recent
36:41
years is that someone did a study
36:44
recently that pointed out that 30% of
36:46
American entrepreneurs have been
36:49
diagnosed at some point in their life
36:51
with a profound learning disability and
36:53
you know you only have the list of
36:55
people who fall into this category
36:57
so the dyslexic you know Branson’s a
37:00
dyslexic Charles Schwab is a dyslexic
37:02
the guy who founded Kinkos is a dyslexic
37:06
I can go on I mean the list is like this
37:08
long right so why is that well the
37:12
argument is that it’s not a coincidence
37:13
is in fact it is a direct function there
37:17
entrepreneurialism is a direct function
37:19
of their disability so how do you
37:21
succeed if you cannot read or write from
37:23
the very earliest stages in your
37:25
elementary education you compensate for
37:27
that if you’re the ones who make it a
37:29
lot of kids don’t make it but those who
37:30
do composite how do they compensate well
37:31
from the very earliest age you learn how
37:34
to delegate so kids who make it through
37:37
school kids who make it to school who
37:42
can’t read or write you know how they do
37:43
it they do it by having others do their
37:45
reading reading and writing for them
37:47
right you learn you compensate by being
37:50
a really good oral communicator you
37:52
can’t write or read so you your talker
37:55
right you learn how to problem-solve
37:57
right because your life is one big
37:59
problem you’re in an institution asks
38:03
you to do two things and you can’t do
38:05
either of them right and you learn how
38:07
to be a leader you have to do all those
38:10
things problem solved delegate oral
38:13
communicate you learn how to lead in
38:15
fact there’s a beautiful saying that was
38:17
also done that said that pointed out
38:18
that of dyslexic entrepreneurs 80% of
38:21
them were a captain of a high school
38:23
sports team versus 30% of non dyslexic
38:26
entrepreneurs that’s the character type
38:28
right so when you go down to the real
38:30
world and what is a required of an
38:32
entrepreneur that they’d be a good
38:34
leader that they delegate that they’d be
38:36
a problem solver and that they’d be good
38:37
oral communicators these people have
38:39
been spending their whole life
38:40
practicing the very the four skills that
38:43
are at the cornerstone of
38:44
entrepreneurial success now
38:47
you talk to those people and you ask
38:48
John Chambers dyslexic but it’s
38:51
difficult reading his own email you
38:53
asked all those guys what did you know
38:56
what role did this Lexia play in your
38:59
success they would say it wasn’t an
39:01
obstacle that I had to overcome it was
39:03
in fact the reason I’m successful it is
39:06
a disadvantage that ended up being an
39:08
advantage now I am actually this
39:10
category to me is the most fascinating
39:12
one of all I’m saluting the other
39:14
example one of the most striking
39:18
findings in educational research is that
39:21
there’s almost no payoff that we can
39:23
find to reducing class size even though
39:27
all parents are obsessed with class size
39:28
right irrationally so if your kid is in
39:31
a class size of 25 and you hear that at
39:33
some other school it’s 19 until you pay
39:36
$25,000 a year to get your kid at the
39:38
school with the 19 kids instead of the
39:39
25 right in fact reams and reams and
39:43
reams of academic studies have failed to
39:45
show any advantage to smaller class
39:47
sizes except for really disadvantaged
39:51
kids in very very early grades for
39:53
everyone else it’s a total wash why is
39:55
it a wash because it makes no sense why
39:58
would you do just as well in a class
40:00
where the teachers not paying you enough
40:02
as much attention right shouldn’t
40:04
shouldn’t be a correlation between
40:05
teacher inputs and student performance I
40:09
yes but only if there are there is no
40:12
such thing as a disadvantage that can be
40:14
an advantage what if the disadvantage of
40:17
being all in a large classroom is
40:19
something that you compensate for what
40:22
if it’s like dyslexia what if if you’re
40:24
one of 30 kids you compensate and learn
40:27
self-reliance and that self-reliance in
40:30
the end is just an important a trait has
40:33
the thing that you would get from a
40:35
heavy amount of teacher feedback right
40:37
we are resolutely uninterested in the
40:40
category of benefits that fall into that
40:42
fourth category right we can’t even talk
40:44
about them no one wants to talk about
40:46
what are the things what are the kind of
40:48
customized disadvantages that we might
40:50
introduce into our school system that
40:52
might have a positive effect right and
40:55
we’re we’re all we operate under this
40:58
extraordinarily psychologically naive no
41:01
that the only thing that matters in
41:03
school are advantages that are
41:04
advantages right as if everything else
41:07
didn’t exist like I would love to see
41:10
for example and now ranting on and on
41:13
but it is not like I live in Manhattan
41:15
in Manhattan we had these super super
41:17
super fancy private schools the most
41:19
advantaged private schools in the world
41:22
right the cost 30 grand a year
41:24
high schools I’m not convinced that that
41:28
isn’t a that those schools don’t fall
41:30
into the category of advantages that are
41:31
disadvantages I would love to see I
41:33
would love to know on a kind of see a
41:35
systematic analysis of whether you’re
41:38
helped why is it the case that you’re
41:39
better off going to that school then
41:41
learning how to cope in a far more
41:44
heterogeneous rough-and-tumble
41:47
public school environment I don’t it’s
41:50
not obvious to me why that’s in fact
41:52
most of the successful people who send
41:54
their kids to those schools went to
41:57
rough-and-tumble heterogeneous public
41:59
schools so it is this massive act of
42:02
cognitive dissonance that you turn on
42:04
the very thing that clearly made you
42:06
successful and deny it to your child
42:08
right in the name of what right the same
42:13
grandfather who says that he walked
42:15
seven miles to school every morning
42:16
barefoot drives his kid his grandchild
42:19
in the SUV two blocks to school because
42:22
it’s raining out if it worked for you
42:24
grandpa
42:25
what isn’t it work for me
42:31
possible cultural explanations for
42:33
success like you prepared an Asian to
42:35
Western but even within my fingers off
42:37
I’ve read a lot of studies that try to
42:39
explain for example if its genetic or
42:41
cultural it now there are more Nobel
42:43
Prizes about Jews or any Western
42:44
European Jew each turn your few Jews
42:46
yeah is there any way to debunk that
42:48
yeah so um a lot of advantages Jewish
42:55
advantages are shared by other ethnic
42:58
groups who have are in a similar
43:00
sociological position so the parsees in
43:04
India the Lebanese throughout the world
43:07
the ethnic Chinese in Southeast Asia in
43:11
Malaysia and Vietnam and I mean I could
43:15
go on but there’s a whole series of
43:17
groups that if you look closely at their
43:19
the roles they have played and the
43:21
success they have achieved right so
43:24
they’re all they’re all doing the same
43:25
thing so Jews are not an anomalous
43:28
they’re not anomalous at all they are
43:29
part of a pattern of accomplishment that
43:32
is common to this these discrete ethnic
43:36
minorities within larger countries and a
43:38
lot of that has to do with the kind of
43:41
extraordinary set of there are series of
43:44
disadvantages that come with being in
43:45
that position but there are also a set
43:47
of advantages
43:48
so outsider status being this kind of
43:51
minority outside our group is incredibly
43:54
useful if you would like to play any
43:56
sort of middle man role right which what
43:59
all those groups do lebanese Parsi
44:02
ethnic Chinese and-and-and Jews always
44:06
play in very end up playing this
44:08
entrepreneurial middle man role which is
44:10
something that is uniquely available to
44:12
the outsider because the outsider as an
44:16
outsider is allowed to do things that
44:18
you can’t do if you’re a member of
44:19
majority you can be tough you can say no
44:22
you’re gonna be a banker right where
44:25
you’re where you’re I mean this does not
44:27
apply to the bankers on Wall Street and
44:30
over the last 10 years but historically
44:32
if you were a banker your success
44:34
depended on your ability to say no right
44:36
and to be mean to say to someone who is
44:39
not paying you got to pay
44:41
right it’s really hard to do that if you
44:43
are a member of the majority culture
44:45
because you risk your social standing
44:48
when you stand up to someone and put
44:50
your foot down but if you’re a member of
44:52
a minority group that’s outside the
44:54
general culture you can be tough you can
44:56
say no right so that’s why you see
44:58
banking as always dominated by those
45:00
four groups throughout the you know my
45:02
mother grew up in Jamaica the Jamaican
45:05
it’s funny actually Jamaica is a perfect
45:07
sample this the entrepreneurial
45:09
commercial class of Jamaica is ethnic
45:11
Chinese Jewish and Lebanese an exact
45:18
indication of this very thing so we
45:21
could play with that idea and and I and
45:25
come to an understanding of all kinds of
45:27
of patterns of accomplishment in those
45:30
groups because all those groups also
45:31
have disproportionate professional
45:33
success and disproportionate
45:35
intellectual to some extent into a
45:36
business portion of intellectual success
45:38
as well I feel like I’m discriminating
45:41
against the back of the room referring
45:44
to them yeah what is it
45:50
to be successful in today’s time trading
45:52
where we’re at right now
45:54
as opposed to
46:02
well that’s an interesting question I
46:04
mean the I think it’s easier in the
46:07
sense that there are just so many other
46:09
there are so many such an array of
46:13
things to be good at now right success
46:18
was narrowly defined in the 30s as being
46:20
a doctor or a lawyer today we have you
46:24
know 25 different things that we would
46:27
give a cord that same status to or at
46:30
least after the meltdown on Wall Street
46:33
24 sorry mr. Foster Diggs so in that
46:40
sense you know if you think about the
46:44
kinds of things that are available to
46:45
those who are willing to put ten
46:47
thousand about hours of practice in the
46:49
list is just longer now and so in that
46:51
sense I would say that where I’m at an
46:53
advantage you know how Bill Gates works
46:57
is achievement
46:58
and you know three and six and you dub
47:00
programming and that seeing that success
47:03
before it actually became what we’re all
47:05
here tonight now oh I see well it’s
47:10
always gonna be yeah well we’re in this
47:12
is you know that kind of question is
47:14
unanswerable because it requires us to
47:16
know what the next you think about
47:18
people that Bill Gates’s generation was
47:21
that they were getting their 10,000
47:23
hours in in a discipline before the rest
47:25
of the world realized that that was the
47:27
discipline that mattered right by
47:30
definition we do not know what that
47:31
discipline is today only the 15 year old
47:34
equivalent of Bill Gates does so those
47:36
of you with 15 year old children should
47:38
ask them but you know I’m not gonna know
47:43
sure
47:50
yeah so I have a in the culture section
47:52
of the book
47:53
I am I talk about I try to Kondo I talk
47:58
about um I try to so it’s a I’m trying
48:01
to set up the discussion of Asians in
48:04
math because the hard thing to
48:05
understand about the kind of cultural
48:08
explanation I give for Asian mathematics
48:11
superiority is this notion that the kids
48:14
who are doing well in math today in
48:18
South Korea or Singapore or where have
48:20
you
48:20
an are not themselves rice farmers
48:23
nor are their parents nor in some cases
48:25
are their grandparents right so why how
48:27
is it possible that rice farming could
48:30
be the explanation for the way they are
48:31
well in order to buy that you have to
48:33
buy the idea that cultural models and
48:37
codes and rules persists then long after
48:40
the circumstances that created them have
48:42
gone away those things are still in the
48:44
air they don’t they don’t they don’t
48:46
peter out or vanish they’re actually
48:49
they stick around
48:49
and so I I describe I give an account at
48:53
an explanation for why Appalachia in
48:55
America has always been the most violent
48:59
part of the United States and the
49:02
explanation for that is not in the
49:05
particular immediate conditions of
49:07
Appalachian life it has to do with where
49:09
the ancestors of those living in
49:11
Appalachia come from and they all they
49:14
many of them they that that Appalachia
49:16
was settled by people by the
49:18
scotch-irish people from the borderlands
49:20
of the united kingdom who had developed
49:23
in their time there are hundreds of
49:25
years there in that most kind of lawless
49:28
and dangerous and barren existence had
49:37
developed this thing called a culture of
49:38
Honor which was a culture where your
49:40
where your honor was everything and
49:42
where you would do anything to defend it
49:44
and that is precisely the kind of
49:46
culture that leads to lots and lots and
49:48
lots of violence but it was a that whole
49:51
section of the book is is preparing us
49:54
for the notion for the seeming the
49:56
counter intuitive notion that what your
49:58
great-great great-great grandparents did
50:00
for a living could make a difference in
50:02
how you see the world
50:04
which is not an obvious it’s a difficult
50:05
point I think for many people to grasp
50:08
sure well you made a great case for the
50:12
10,000 hours of work it takes to become
50:14
exceptionally good and it’s something
50:17
and then also poor people are basically
50:20
a disadvantage but I’m wondering what
50:22
were you temps with the loss to society
50:23
we only have so many slots so for
50:26
instance if you have a better pathway
50:28
from the Czech team so the people were
50:31
fully distributed would they have a
50:32
better team yeah I think it stands to
50:36
reason that the Czechs so suppose the
50:39
Czechs have what the Canadians use the
50:40
Canadians inside Canadian suppose the
50:44
Canadians did had three parallel leagues
50:49
then their denominator of kids that
50:51
they’re choosing from I think if you
50:53
look at the distribution now you can
50:55
make a a reasonable inference that they
50:57
are the cap rate is 40 percent right if
51:01
we can raise the capitalization rate to
51:02
80 percent we have doubled the number
51:05
the available pool of kids that were
51:08
choosing from for the most elite level
51:09
so it doesn’t change the same number of
51:12
people are is only a limited number of
51:17
slots in the National Hockey League but
51:19
it stands to reason if the pool that
51:21
you’re pulling from is twice as big the
51:24
average level of talent should be higher
51:29
that you should in other words be able
51:31
to to raise the median level of talent
51:34
in the league if you’ve increased your
51:36
if you’ve increased your you pull your
51:41
fishing
51:45
I know I’m about to get like totally
51:47
smoked but go ahead you would expect
51:51
that the people that were born later in
51:53
the year on the Czech team of all these
51:54
seniors with possibly better than the
51:57
ones are born over yeah that’s yes
52:00
here’s how it starts to get really
52:01
really interesting you might so they
52:03
have overcome well there are several
52:04
things there remember though they may
52:07
simply be maturational anomalies that is
52:10
to say not all if you look at a group of
52:13
seven year-olds they don’t all mature at
52:17
the same rate it is mostly the case that
52:22
the kids born in January are going to be
52:23
bigger and stronger than the kids born
52:25
in December but some of the December
52:26
borns at the age of 10 or 11 are going
52:29
to be as mature as those born in January
52:31
I think what you’re seeing is that those
52:34
are the kids who end up making the in
52:36
each other just ones whose whose growth
52:38
curve was a little bit accelerated I
52:40
think that’s the I don’t know it’s a
52:43
very good question
52:43
you’ll be worth looking into but I did
52:45
look at the list of like the greatest
52:46
hockey players ever and you know they’re
52:49
almost all January February March – the
52:54
ability to cap rate the ability to take
52:57
advantage of like here talking about
52:58
being he’s that kid runners the million
53:01
that have their but their system is not
53:03
able to do anything with that
53:06
so yes the quality of the the ones who
53:10
make it through it’s a great
53:11
conversation that’s happening here
53:13
aggressive Microsoft around innovation
53:14
and part where the ideas is you know how
53:17
do we dig in and find innovation where
53:19
it is it’s it’s not always just coming
53:21
out of MSR there might be we’re bad it
53:24
finding ideas great innovation at other
53:27
parts of the company somebody that’s in
53:29
operations or support that’s a great
53:31
idea but if there’s not the mechanisms
53:33
to pull that out and do something with
53:35
that and so we’re there’s this downward
53:37
pressure on the stupidity factor
53:41
not allowing us to find those ideas yeah
53:44
as well as the upward push yeah sure
53:47
those yes well this is a good point so
53:50
to go back to your point as well so one
53:53
way imagine you know it as a thought
53:56
experiment let’s just use hockey for
53:58
example suppose we wanted to increase
53:59
the cap rate in hockey in the in Canada
54:04
one way to do it is to talk about what
54:06
I’m talking about which is not to
54:07
increase the number of slots in the
54:08
National Hockey League but simply to
54:10
increase the number of developmental
54:12
leaks to have this kind of but another
54:15
way is to is to increase the slots
54:16
suppose as a thought experiment we
54:18
double the size of the National Hockey
54:21
League and we say we’re not going to
54:23
have 30 teams right would that be would
54:27
the would the expansion of that end have
54:30
the effect of forcing a higher if
54:33
greater efficiency in the capitalization
54:34
of hockey teams in of hockey in the
54:39
developmental leagues in other words can
54:41
we are there two ways to do this can you
54:42
do this bottom-up or can you do this
54:44
top-down the only I would be curious I’m
54:48
curious about the top-down version
54:50
because we have a version of it in this
54:52
country right now right where you have
54:55
companies like Microsoft which whole
54:59
tier of high technology companies which
55:01
are in perpetual have a perpetual
55:03
shortage of very very talented people
55:05
right they’re always complaining we
55:06
can’t we can’t find enough people who to
55:08
fill these kinds of slots we got to go
55:10
overseas without always kind of and so
55:13
in this case it has not had the this
55:17
this perpetual shortage of very talented
55:19
people has not really had the effect I
55:21
think of dramatically raising our
55:23
capitalization rates when it comes to
55:25
math and science in fact over the course
55:27
of the last 25 or 30 years the relative
55:29
performance of the United States in math
55:31
and science seems to if I if I have my
55:33
numbers correctly seems to have if
55:35
anything eroded so that suggests that
55:38
maybe top down that’s up that that
55:42
supply side up or demand side approaches
55:45
how does get the mixed up one of them
55:47
you know I’m talking about increase the
55:48
number of slots at the top may not be
55:50
the best way to do it I mean but it’s
55:53
open to it’s it’s worth
55:55
you know thinking about all these
55:56
various common scenarios sure math
56:02
programs and all this that a lot of that
56:04
efforts gonna be wasted because to
56:05
societal underpinnings are yeah yeah you
56:10
need to have a kind of I mean there has
56:12
to be like to go back to the the the
56:15
Kenyan runners for example so they do
56:17
have there’s an awful lot of it’s
56:20
actually incredibly wasteful to have a
56:22
ninety percent capitalization rate for
56:23
distance running you don’t actually want
56:25
a million of your twelve year olds
56:28
running ten miles a day because you only
56:31
have four spots on the Olympic team or
56:33
whatever three spots and metric team you
56:35
want them to be doing something that has
56:36
some kind of ultimate payoff so
56:37
especially that’s actually not a it’s
56:39
not a model we want to emulate probably
56:40
a good thing that we have a one-percent
56:41
capitalization rate but we just
56:43
shouldn’t whine about our performance in
56:45
upon this is running but as a result but
56:47
um but there are a whole series of like
56:52
here’s that this is a totally wacky idea
56:54
that I’ve been talking about with some
56:56
people which is I suppose you rewarded
57:03
in suppose you set up a system that
57:05
allowed individuals or groups or
57:07
nonprofits to profit from raising cap
57:11
rates so I go into suppose like go into
57:14
the sector to South Central LA and I
57:17
have a class of us a first grade class
57:20
right now I know actually speaking
57:23
looking at the those kids in their
57:24
socio-economic background that the
57:26
amount of federal tax those kids will
57:28
pay like actually twenty thirty years
57:33
hence is probably close to zero right
57:35
you have to join you to really be a
57:37
member of the middle class to to pay
57:39
taxes these days and the the number of
57:42
kids in a the worst part of South
57:45
Central who end up in the middle class
57:46
is very very small so suppose I said to
57:48
so the cap rate if we define
57:50
capitalization as joining the middle
57:52
class and paying federal taxes the
57:54
capitalization rate in a bad
57:57
neighborhood in South Central is pretty
58:00
much a zero okay so what if we said to
58:03
anyone that if you can raise the
58:07
capitalization rate in
58:08
that group I’ll give you a cut of their
58:11
federal taxes so what if you said just
58:13
like you it’s like a you could you could
58:15
venture capital groups of kids right now
58:19
obviously this is a as a kind of as a
58:21
kind of thought experiment so we know
58:23
we’re getting so why do you because
58:25
we’re getting zero federal tax dollars
58:26
now what would be so wrong to say if you
58:29
Joe Smith want to invest in this class
58:32
of kids for the next 25 years I’ll give
58:35
you a fifty percent of the tax revenue
58:36
in perpetuity and if you so in other
58:38
ways if you can get you know three
58:40
computer programmers and two doctors out
58:42
of this class of thirty kids you’re
58:43
gonna be a very very rich man and by the
58:45
way society will be way better and the
58:47
kids will be happier because they will
58:48
have what they don’t have now which is
58:50
someone who is actively interested in
58:53
and capable of of increasing their
58:57
capitalization right of getting the rate
58:58
from zero to whatever it is ten fifteen
59:00
twenty thirty five percent I seen I have
59:03
no I dissolve people you know when you
59:05
tell other people late very often people
59:07
think oh that it’s just sound so blue
59:09
you know what it’s whatever problems are
59:11
oh that idea it’s a lot better than what
59:13
we have now which is no one caring for
59:15
the kids right but the point is that
59:17
capitalization strategies change the
59:22
discussion they move us away from this I
59:25
am so sick of this relentless absurd
59:29
exhausting focus on ability which is
59:33
just beside the point and and they moves
59:37
away from that and move us towards on
59:39
this focus on the exploitation of the
59:43
ability that’s already there and that’s
59:45
just a far more rational place to start
59:47
if we had if we did everything in our
59:50
power to exploit ability and we still
59:53
saw differences in outcomes then we can
59:55
talk talent right if we had if in
59:57
America we had twenty five million high
60:01
school kids running twelve miles a day
60:03
and we still were getting you know
60:05
smoked at the Olympics in the ten
60:06
thousand meters
60:07
I will entertain every genetic argument
60:09
you want about difference in us in East
60:11
Africans but until we do that it’s a
60:13
pointless argument right that’s what I
60:15
so that’s why I think we need to be much
60:17
more inventive in our in our thinking
60:19
about capitalization
60:21
what if that runners playing soccer
60:23
hockey lacrosse football baseball
60:26
basketball right like we spread our many
60:30
more sports then indeed yes yeah yes was
60:35
my point that it’s apples and that
60:37
because of those very very differences
60:38
great differences in the way in which
60:39
talent athletic talent is capitalized in
60:41
these two cultures you can’t draw any
60:44
conclusions about innate ability comment
60:56
that he’s gonna have to leave the
60:57
building cuz he has to go do a talk at
60:59
the Gates Foundation where I think he’s
61:00
gonna be convincing them to make that
61:02
investment in those kids so I know
61:11
everybody you know what’s the book and I
61:13
did have a Malkin those pre signed tons
61:15
of copies the books so my question to
61:17
you is we can have Malcolm answer
61:18
questions for all of us for the next 15
61:20
minutes and then get in the car and get
61:22
over the bridge or he can sign and
61:24
personalize books for a very few of you
61:28
so I’m thinking we’re moving toward the
61:30
questions yeah
61:46
this is a disproportionate amount of
61:47
sprinkles do you think that fall to do
61:52
the same thing even though they have a
61:53
small people were available yeah well
61:56
has some as you know I’m half Jamaican
61:58
so I’m powerfully disposed to answer
62:00
this question in the way that reflects
62:02
most flatteringly on Jamaica from
62:06
Jamaica is it’s a beautiful example of
62:09
this right so in this long-running
62:13
debate about nurture versus nature in
62:16
running in sprinting especially you know
62:19
that the quote unquote gene pool of
62:21
Jamaica isn’t any different than any
62:24
number of other countries around the
62:25
world and yet Jamaica utterly dominates
62:27
sprinting this is a clear case where cap
62:30
rates for sprinting in Jamaica are must
62:33
be very very close to 90% and I I have
62:38
no real evidence for this other than
62:39
anecdotally I was just in Jamaica for
62:40
Christmas who’s me my cousins and I am a
62:43
runner so I go was I would go running
62:44
around you know in the little Hills
62:45
around my aunts house and it was this
62:49
hilarious things never have to be
62:50
anywhere else that the sight of someone
62:53
running in Jamaica is just ignite some
62:56
kind of thing in all passers-by so here
62:59
I am you know running along down the
63:01
road and like people like slow down wave
63:03
and think some guy will be trudging
63:05
along back from work and he would say he
63:07
would like you go run run run oh ok run
63:10
after me
63:10
I like run with me for like it was just
63:13
like this and I realize like this is
63:15
it’s an obsession right it’s a complete
63:17
obsession and there is so much status
63:20
associated with the act of running that
63:22
if you have any you know even remote
63:24
ability in this area you exploit it
63:26
right and you know Usain Bolt at this
63:28
point is if he is a you know not since
63:32
Bob Marley has has there been someone
63:34
who has ignited this degree of so I
63:36
think it’s a beautiful illustration of
63:38
of what I’m talking about
63:42
this is all based on pepper society
63:45
values
63:47
yes how long it would take a societal
63:50
value change to impact the
63:52
capitalization of the other folks
63:54
artists and we’re going to enter a new
63:56
phase of political life here I think a
63:58
lot of us are hoping this new value yeah
64:02
yeah yeah so I I’m a real optimist in I
64:08
believe these kinds of shifts can happen
64:09
really quickly and let’s let’s stick
64:10
with sports Ramona because Sports is a
64:12
just a an elegant way of if you think
64:16
about what happened after title 9 is a
64:19
timeline so I was just with I saw a
64:22
friend of mine the day who has 12 year
64:27
old daughter so she’s 40-something and
64:29
she was talking about the difference
64:31
that is between her upbringing and her
64:34
daughters and my friend is a he’s an
64:37
athletic person in the sense that she’s
64:39
you know has no there’s no but she did
64:42
not play any sports at all as a kid so
64:46
she grew up in an upper middle-class
64:47
family in Providence Rhode Island not
64:50
some you know sticky play like you know
64:52
eastern seaboard it never even occurred
64:54
to her to do sports none and in her
64:56
daughter’s life sports is everything I
64:59
mean not everything they they do the
65:00
same amount of schoolwork she did but
65:01
they play so many organized sports she
65:04
can’t keep track of it that is a
65:06
capitalization or capitalization rate
65:08
for women and soccer or basketball 20
65:12
only 25 or 30 years ago was what 5
65:15
percent 2 percent 3 percent today it’s
65:18
50 60 70 percent that’s one generation
65:21
it’s an incredible shift in what we
65:23
think of in our kind of priorities in
65:25
that particular area that makes me
65:27
profoundly optimistic about our ability
65:29
to shift our capitalization the the
65:35
focus of our interest in other more
65:36
consequential areas because let’s face
65:38
it that’s not a very consequential area
65:39
but if we can do it with you know with
65:42
soccer I feel like we can do it with all
65:43
kinds of other things
66:07
the culture
66:17
mistake slavery for example is for the
66:20
longest impact of slavery and what are
66:23
you talking about outliers that
66:26
community black
66:30
in fact with me
66:32
how long yeah so the question was about
66:36
on the opposite side thinking about how
66:39
things like the legacy of slavery have
66:40
impacted opportunity and so I in the
66:45
last chapter of my book is a personal
66:47
chapter and it’s about my it’s the story
66:49
of my mother’s family and it attempts to
66:52
answer this very question so my mother
66:55
is a brown skinned Jamaican and one of
66:58
the points and I she has had this what
67:01
what I what anyone would consider a
67:04
successful life she grew up in a little
67:05
tiny cottage in the middle of the Hills
67:07
of Jamaica and ended up a upper-middle
67:10
class professional in Canada right and I
67:12
tried to tell her story using the ideas
67:14
of the book and focus not on her own
67:16
pluck and intelligence but on the what
67:19
are the kinds of opportunities that
67:20
allowed her to do that and one of the
67:22
things that I got into was the
67:24
peculiarities of being a brown skinned
67:28
Jamaican and I traced my mother’s family
67:31
history back to in the 1700s as a
67:37
plantation owner from Ireland comes to
67:39
Jamaica and takes as his concubine
67:41
basically I’m sure just bought and raped
67:43
an African slave and that’s the
67:46
beginning of my that their son a guy
67:48
named John Ford was the the beginning of
67:51
my mother’s line right so in Jamaica the
67:55
offspring the mulatto offspring of a
67:57
mixed-race Union in the 1700s was not
68:01
put back into slavery the way that that
68:04
child would have been in the in the
68:07
American South on the contrary the Brits
68:09
did this very very different thing which
68:10
was if you were mixed race you got
68:12
welcomed into the ruling class so John
68:15
Ford one generation removed from a slave
68:17
ship was a preacher he was a literate
68:20
educated man who was a free was a free
68:23
man in 1790 whatever it was and whose
68:25
kids were free and on and on and if you
68:27
traced my mother’s family history down
68:29
along with the history of all these
68:31
other parallel brown skinned Jamaicans
68:34
you see a legacy of privilege that goes
68:36
back generations upon generations upon
68:38
generations you see people who are
68:40
members of the entrepreneurial and
68:42
commercial and professional classes
68:43
going back to the earliest earliest
68:46
days of the 19th century right now that
68:48
has given them a status and a set of
68:52
opportunities that are denied to people
68:54
who who were pushed back into slavery
68:57
their equivalents in America who weren’t
68:59
plucked out in 1790 and allowed to get
69:02
an education but were pushed back in and
69:04
enslaved for another three generations
69:05
there is a world of difference between
69:07
starting from where my mother started
69:10
from and starting from where she would
69:12
have started from if her ancestors have
69:14
been in Georgia or Alabama you know
69:17
interestingly as well along those same
69:19
lines skip gates the professor of
69:22
african-american studies at Harvard did
69:23
this really fascinating set of
69:25
genealogical studies of prominent and
69:28
successful African Americans and
69:29
discovered that almost without fail if
69:33
you look back several generations into
69:36
the families of these success stories
69:38
what you find is either someone who was
69:41
who was a freed slave so freed before
69:44
emancipation or a freed slave who
69:48
managed in the first generation after
69:49
emancipation to own land in other words
69:52
you see the same thing that success in
69:55
the present day is a function of an
69:57
opportunity that was created two three
69:59
four or five generations previously
70:01
right and that is that when we’re
70:03
talking about this flipside it reminds
70:05
us that of how the shadow of slavery
70:10
those who were denied that kind of of
70:13
get-out-of-jail-free card on that my mom
70:16
got or that you know these other people
70:18
that skip gates looked at card to be
70:20
denied for your ancestor to be denied
70:22
that get out of jail free card matters
70:24
even today so now you asked about Obama
70:27
what is the success of Obama tell us
70:30
about the continuing significance of
70:32
that legacy nothing right nothing listen
70:36
I mean I love him as much as anyone I
70:38
could not be more thrilled about what’s
70:40
gonna happen on Tuesday right I mean a
70:42
relief of cataclysmic I might even
70:44
become an American citizen now but
70:48
but let’s be let’s be clear his victory
70:53
does not mean that this issue is over
70:55
right it it you know and if that is how
70:58
we interpret it then yeah well that’s
71:33
the you know I wish I could give you a
71:36
kind of complete and satisfying answer
71:39
to that and I don’t know I mean in my
71:42
book I talked a little bit about just on
71:44
this narrow question of how can you
71:46
teach math to inner-city kids
71:48
and can you can you get an inner-city
71:52
kid to think like an Asian when it comes
71:55
to math and the answer is we think the
71:56
answer is yes we’ve seen extraordinary
71:58
results with with teaching math by
72:02
changing attitudes about work and that
72:05
makes me think that we have all kinds of
72:07
opportunities in other areas but what
72:08
that effort looks like I don’t know it’s
72:11
sort of it’s the kind of thing that I
72:13
hope others will I’m sure others already
72:15
pursuing but that I think we need to
72:17
know more about as a as a society I will
72:29
have I have many many ideas one um one
72:32
I’ll give you a little preview of my
72:33
next New Yorker article which is uh
72:35
whether it’s to in works one is an
72:37
attack on to kill a mockingbird because
72:42
it turns out if you read no one has read
72:45
this book since you were like 12 years
72:46
old right so what do you know when
72:50
you’re 12
72:50
nothing reread it so I’ll tell you and
72:54
you discovered Atticus Finch monster
72:57
and they’re coming soon and another the
73:02
other one which is will be even more
73:03
near and dear to your hearts and I can’t
73:05
give you details but I’ll give you the
73:06
outline and by the way this is such a
73:09
cool story I have never won this cool a
73:11
long time I met this guy from your world
73:16
software entrepreneur whatever and you
73:21
know the type he’s like came from Mumbai
73:23
went to Caltech or MIT you know three
73:26
dollars in his pocket makes a name for
73:29
himself in Silicon Valley here’s a
73:31
daughter and his daughter wants to play
73:35
she’s 12 years old she wants to play
73:36
basketball right now he isn’t doing
73:38
about basketball he’s a software
73:40
programmer from Mumbai but he decides I
73:42
want to coach my daughter’s basketball
73:43
team so he goes to a basketball game and
73:46
he observes it right as an outsider
73:48
would right we’re talking about
73:49
outsiders he’s an outsider you know he
73:52
observes it and he comes away shaking
73:53
his head thinking why do they play this
73:55
game in such a mindless fashion and so
73:58
he decides to to teach his daughter and
74:02
her teammates to play the game his way
74:04
right and what happens now keep in mind
74:07
this team is a team of girls taken
74:10
they’re all from like Mountain View and
74:12
their fathers are all people like this
74:14
guy they’re the children of software
74:16
programmers they are not big huge
74:17
hulking mesomorphs with bulging muscles
74:20
they’re like little skinny girls with
74:22
pigtails right what happens they almost
74:24
win the state championship they don’t
74:27
win the state Senate because they
74:28
actually they get cheated in this
74:29
outrageous way which is one of the great
74:31
parts the story but the whole point of
74:33
this it’s just so on every level genius
74:36
it all has to do with what happens when
74:39
a really really smart guy from Mumbai
74:42
des sized to coach basketball and the
74:45
answer is nothing that you’ve ever seen
74:47
on a basketball court before now only
74:50
through his last little factoid which is
74:54
during the games when he’s doing this
74:56
thing that he does and is these little
74:58
girls with big tail but only they’re not
75:00
good basketball players PS they’re not
75:03
gonna go and play like division one cut
75:05
they’re like little skinny girls who
75:07
spend who are gonna they’re all gonna
75:08
take physics at Caltech they don’t even
75:10
in
75:11
faster than sports that much but they’re
75:13
like under the tutelage of this masked
75:15
genius mad genius during the games as
75:18
they’re coaching the other the opposing
75:20
coaches who are the ones steeped in the
75:23
older paradigm of basketball get so
75:27
enraged by what’s happening that they
75:30
start by like you know just kind of
75:32
sitting there and it’s done silence then
75:34
they start screaming at their own girl
75:36
these 12 people screaming at their own
75:38
players as if it’s their fault right and
75:40
then like invariably they challenge this
75:44
guy to a fight in the parking lot after
75:45
the game anyway so look for that one –
75:51
thank you all
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